Forecasting China's natural gas consumption based on a combination model
Xu, Gang1; Wang, Weiguo2
KeywordNatural Gas Consumption Forecasting Combination Model
Indexed BySCI
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Physical Sciences ; Technology
WOS SubjectChemistry, Applied ; Chemistry, Physical ; Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical
WOS Research AreaChemistry ; Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
AbstractEnsuring a sufficient energy supply is essential to a country Natural gas constitutes a vital part in energy supply and therefore forecasting natural gas consumption reliably and accurately is an essential part of a country's energy policy Over the years studies have shown that a combinative model gives better projected results compared to a single model In this study, we used Polynomial Curve and Moving Average Combination Projection (PCMACP) model to estimate the future natural gas consumption in China from 2009 to 2015 The new proposed PCMACP model shows more reliable and accurate results its Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is less than those of any previous models within the investigated range According to the PCMACP model, the average annual growth rate will increase for the next 7 years and the amount of natural gas consumption will reach 171600 million cubic meters in 2015 in China
WOS IDWOS:000284031600009
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Cited Times:24[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Dalian Inst Chem Phys, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, Peoples R China
2.Dongbei Univ Finance & Econ, Coll Quantitat Econ, Dalian 116025, Liaoning, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Xu, Gang,Wang, Weiguo. Forecasting China's natural gas consumption based on a combination model[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL GAS CHEMISTRY,2010,19(5):493-496.
APA Xu, Gang,&Wang, Weiguo.(2010).Forecasting China's natural gas consumption based on a combination model.JOURNAL OF NATURAL GAS CHEMISTRY,19(5),493-496.
MLA Xu, Gang,et al."Forecasting China's natural gas consumption based on a combination model".JOURNAL OF NATURAL GAS CHEMISTRY 19.5(2010):493-496.
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