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题名: Forecasting China's natural gas consumption based on a combination model
作者: Xu, Gang1;  Wang, Weiguo2
关键词: natural gas consumption ;  forecasting combination model
刊名: JOURNAL OF NATURAL GAS CHEMISTRY
发表日期: 2010-09-01
DOI: 10.1016/S1003-9953(09)60100-6
卷: 19, 期:5, 页:493-496
收录类别: SCI
文章类型: Article
WOS标题词: Science & Technology ;  Physical Sciences ;  Technology
类目[WOS]: Chemistry, Applied ;  Chemistry, Physical ;  Energy & Fuels ;  Engineering, Chemical
研究领域[WOS]: Chemistry ;  Energy & Fuels ;  Engineering
英文摘要: Ensuring a sufficient energy supply is essential to a country Natural gas constitutes a vital part in energy supply and therefore forecasting natural gas consumption reliably and accurately is an essential part of a country's energy policy Over the years studies have shown that a combinative model gives better projected results compared to a single model In this study, we used Polynomial Curve and Moving Average Combination Projection (PCMACP) model to estimate the future natural gas consumption in China from 2009 to 2015 The new proposed PCMACP model shows more reliable and accurate results its Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is less than those of any previous models within the investigated range According to the PCMACP model, the average annual growth rate will increase for the next 7 years and the amount of natural gas consumption will reach 171600 million cubic meters in 2015 in China
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000284031600009
Citation statistics: 
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://cas-ir.dicp.ac.cn/handle/321008/142042
Appears in Collections:中国科学院大连化学物理研究所_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Dalian Inst Chem Phys, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, Peoples R China
2.Dongbei Univ Finance & Econ, Coll Quantitat Econ, Dalian 116025, Liaoning, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Xu, Gang,Wang, Weiguo. Forecasting China's natural gas consumption based on a combination model[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL GAS CHEMISTRY,2010,19(5):493-496.
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